Monday, January 31, 2011

SPY Pivot Still No Confirmation

 So no confirmation of a pivot yet on the SPY. My last blog on the SPY I said we had to have a close below 127.13 to confirm a pivot and a good chance of a correction. Didn't happen today and the vol was back down below the 250 million again . Low vol, market up but lets see what tomorrow brings. Today could be just a consolidation or pause day. Maybe we hold here a couple days and form a bear flag. I will not trade this until we have confirmation of a pivot.

Again this is just my interpretations of technical charting and consult a investment consultant before making any trades

Sunday, January 30, 2011

GLD Where now

Here I have a chart of the GLD that goes back to the July 2010 lows. If you have read my earlier post on the GLD I called a head & shoulders top and a target of 127.We were well on our way until Friday where we touched 127.80 and the troubles in Egypt broke out. Fridays candle looks like a short term reversal which could take us back up to test the 20 average. I still like the pattern and still have that 127 support. Also what makes me think we will get there is in blue is Fibbonacci retracements. The 50% retracement  is at 126.44 and again the 200 daily average is rising and coming into that same area. I think we will test this area before moving back to breaking the Dec.highs.

Now here is a chart that shows the last 7 days leading to Friday's close. Fridays candle does not classify as a engulfing candle. Thursday open was 130.29 and its close was 127.92. Fridays open was 130.28 so we 127.92 and closed at 130.28. The body of Friday's candle was inside the body of Thursday candle  To be a engulfing candle which is very bullish,  Friday's open and close should have been outside of  Thursday body. I am not saying that Friday is not a reversal but you need to see another candle before I will trade off this pattern.

Again this is my interpretations of technical charts and and you must consult with your investment consultant before doing any trades

Drys Still holding Puts

Still holding my DRYS Mar 5.00 puts. We had some support a couple days at 5.00 then broke through to come into a uptrend line (lime green trend line) along with the 200 day average.  My Putts are still in the money but I have a break even stop on this trade so I will not loose. I still like this short and think we will break the green trend line to get the final push down to my target 4.00

Here is a wider time frame that shows where I get the green trend line connecting the 2010 July low to Nov low pivot. There is a gap around the 4.25 area which depending how fast we get there I may take half of my position off and take some profit ,but lets not get ahead of ourselves and get through the green trend lined 1st

Saturday, January 29, 2011


Well my last post I told you I didn't think we got the pivot confirmed and that 130 was still my resistance. Well it got pegged on Friday and then someone pulled the rug out from under it. To confirm a pivot we still got to break the 127.13 low back on the 20th but I think we have the catalyst in the Egyptian crisis to get the correction going. There should be a little support on the 50 average but it was tagged once back in Dec since the July lows so there should be some weakness in it, not like a 1st hit. The 1st support will be 122.36 the Nov high (trend line marked in red). But were I see major support is the 119.54 which is a gap window (trend lines marked in blue). This is a area of past congestion where there is gap fill, then Nov lows. (lowest trend line marked in red) You also have the 200 average moving into this area too.

Remember this is my interpretations of technical charting and before you trade consult a professional consultant before acting on any trades.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

OPXT Opnext, Inc

Here is a small cap I will keeping a eye on which I like long and mid term. I love the W pattern ( draw out in blue on the chart 1) that its form and I think we are about to form the V part af the pattern. The market at a whole is over bought so I will be paitent and wait for a pullback and the V part of the pattern to form. I like the 1.70 area because I see some support forming there. The 200 average on the daily chart is around that area and the 50 is working its way up. I love to see the 2 averages intersect around that area with the stock pulling back there. If we get to 1.70 looking at picking up 1/2 a position then wait to see the pattern play out.
 Now here is a long term chart (3 year weekly chart) and what pattern do we see starting to form. The answer is W (drawn out in blue). Now it has to keep the trend moving up to 3.28 to form the 1st part of the pattern. But what I like about this stock is 2 different time frames looking bullish.The daily bullish and the weekly  bullish. Another part of the puzzle is the MACD. It is showing divergence in the weekly chart and if you look at the daily when the W formed  there is divergence on the MACD there too. Again this is my  interpretations of technical charts and any trade should be discussed with your professional investor before performing any trades.

Saturday, January 22, 2011


So Wed nice big down day with a little more vol. Can we called this a pivot day? Technically no. To be a true pivot we have to close below Wednesday tail which is 127.91. The pivot is still possible and in play as long as we don't trade above Wednesday high. If that happens we look for a double top or my next big resistance at 130. The MACD is in slight divergence but nowhere to what I like to see so I am very cautious here with all the fed involvement and stuff it is very hard to load up on shorts. I have one Long and one short via a put option (my trading company would not let me short DRYS so I bought a Put Option instead)  I am  still roughly 90% cash so you can call me neutral. I will wait and let the market tell me direction before I will commit more money to this market. This again is my interpretations of technical charting and due diligence should be used before any trades are made. Contact a professional stock broke and discuss before any trade are made.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011


 Here is another Head and Shoulders top. Dryships Inc broke the neck line today but still need second  day below the neck line to confirm the break. My measurements takes it to 4.00 which is very close to the pivot area back in Nov of 2010 at about 4.05. I like the vol pattern too with the higher vol at the left shoulder and head then there is at the right shoulder. There should be some support at 5.00 and we may have a small bounce back close to the neck line which would be a better time to buy in and have a tighter stop in case the pattern breaks down. Only a close above the neck line would negate the pattern. This is my interpretation of technical charting and anyone should us due diligence and contact a professional stock broker before making any trades.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011


  So I been ranting and raving about vol. Well here is a chart of the SPY where I have circled the high vol days. There are 3 periods where the vol was high and the market moved down but once the vol dropped off the market drifted up. It looks like the SPY  needs over 200 million to 300 million shares on a daily base trade to get the market to drop. Again this is just my interpetation of charts and due diligence should be practiced  and discuss any trades with a professional before going ahead with a trade.

SPY intraday 11/01/18 to close

The 1st chart is my post around 1100 am called SPY intraday to show a trend line I was watching. We didn't get the break until late in the day then only got a small pullback. Light vol is killing this market and the promo working hard floating this market up. The problem is it is so hard to short until some vol come back to the market. I had a day trade short going but took a small lost thanks to my stop as shown in the 2nd chart once the trend line got breached and the trend was no longer in play.

SPY intraday 11/01/18

watch the red trend line intraday we break thru it this market should move down to 1290 then 1288

Saturday, January 15, 2011


Here a stock that broke a inverse Head and shoulder and now forming a bull flag. So if your a believer of Fibonacci numbers a pull back to 3.83 ( which is the blue lines and is the 38.2% retracementt) would be a good time to maybe start a position on this stock. If we should break the 38.2 retracement the would breach the neck line and void the head and shoulders pattern. My measurement for the head and shoulder is 5.00 which is the top red line and a double top. Again this is my interpetations of technical charting and consult ur investment consultant before making any trades

Thursday, January 13, 2011

H&S 1 lives 1 dies

Well yesterday both charts were about to break down and I warned how caution should be taken because when they break they can break hard . The FXE is a prime example on how they will run hard once the patterns break down. The GLD was saved but with such low vol I have a hard time committing to this market . I don't think Europe is out of trouble yet and to think they are saved by a bigger debtor country like Japan buying their debt is gonna save the world. It be like me getting a second credit card to pay off my 1st but I cant do that and survive which I feel is the same for these countries. As for The GLD there is some support at 133.70 then 133. The FXE went and hit the 50 average 1st time since it broke threw in Nov so there should be some selling for a day or so but again light vol I just don't trust it.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Head & Shoulders still Alive but Just Barley

Well both Head and shoulders are still alive but just barley. Both closed on or very close to their neck lines but as long as we don,t  cross over and close with a breach of the neck line they are still in play on this pattern. I am afraid the powers to be do not want to let this market flow naturally and are doing everything in their powers to prop this market up.That is one big reason I have not traded these patterns. We will have to see what the close brings us tomorrow. Just one thing is when patterns break down they will usually run hard the opposite way so be very careful and always use your stops. The big thing in markets like this is protect your capital. I am sitting on 90% cash because I just don't trust the manipulation in this market so again due diligence and talk over any trade with  your stock consultant or broker before making any trades.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Both Head and Shoulders GLD and FXE

Both Head and Shoulders on the GLD and FXE still intact but the GLD came close to breaking down, 135.3 looks to about where the neckline will be tomorrow so as long as we don't close above this the head and shoulders will still be in play. The FXE or the euro/dollar play not only has a head and shoulders but a bear flag (shown in blue on the 1st chart)  forming. I have no trades base on these charts and consult a professional stock consultant before doing any trades.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Euro/US Dollar

Here is a interesting chart. This is the ETF of the Euro vs the US dollar. It looks like the Euro has a head and shoulders pattern that broke on last Thur. If my measurements are right I have it going to 116 but I think there likely some support at 118 which would be a double bottom. But if you go out to a longer chart (second chart is a weekly chat) it looks like the Euro has been trading in a descending channel and the 116 that the head and shoulders is calling would touch the bottom end of the channel. This could be the catalyst to move the SPX down if we get a stronger dollar. Only a breach of the neck line would break down this pattern.

Friday, January 7, 2011

USO Neutral

The USO I have a Neutral bias with no pattern to make a trade. There seems to be some support at 37.52. The 50 avg is little support because it had been touched once before in Nov. so usually the 2nd time around the odds for a bounce is much less then the 1st touch. The blue trend line is the one I am watching should we break it to the down side then look for oil to test 34.5 then 32.25

GLD Head & Shoulders Top YES

It looks like the Head and Shoulders is in play. We got confirmation on Thur. and it looks like a bear flag (Blue Lines) is forming as a couple more days of side ways movement could set us up to reach the 127.5 target. Only a return and break of the neck line would break down this pattern. I have no trades on this pattern and the GLD can be a high risk trade so dude diligence and discuss with your broker before making any trades.

SPY Nothing New

Not much has changed this week. The SPY traded between support (green line 124.66) and resistence (Top red line 130). Its been a real slow grind and vol had not got back to over 300 million yet. It seems anytime we get vol over 300 million its usally a down day so until that vol come back they will likely run this market to the 130 mark. If we should get a intraday touch on the 130 I may do a short scalp on the SPY but will have to see what pattern we have at that time.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

GLD Head & Shoulders Top Maybe

Watch the GLD, was close to breaking the neck line (Red line) on a Head and Shoulders top pattern but they saved it at the close of the markets closing right on the neck line. Tomorrow will be interesting day to see if we can close below the neck line. If we get a break then we could go to the 127.50 mark to complete the pattern. The other part of this puzzle I like is the vol is dropping to the right shoulder which is a good indicator of a head and shoulders top.