Steelman's Technical Charts

Disclaimer: Steelman's Technical Charts are my own amateur interpretations of technical charts and for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of securities, or any other financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities mentioned herein. Steelman's Technical Charts assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

FDX out my Puts BUll flag

Out of my FDX puts because didn't drop like I thought and looks like a Bullish flag (blue dotted lines) forming. I may have got out too early but again with all the Fed promo going on still little skiddist even at these levels.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

GLD, USO Just follow UUP

Well here is a compassion chart of the GLD USO and UUP. The UUP is the bottom chart USO is the middle and GLD top. The trend for the GLD and USO trend is up but look at the UPP (dollar etf) its trend is down. SO conclusion you want to know where oil and gold are heading? As long as the Fed keeps printing money and devaluing the dollar there is only one way for the trend to go and that is eventually up. But Remember no equity or commodity never moves straight up or straight down and its all about catching the right wave to make money.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

USO Intersting Trend Line

So here is a very interesting trend line which leads us to a very interesting Mon. If you look at the green trend line back in June to Sept it was support then it broke through. Here I go preaching again but support broken now becomes resistance and has it become resistance. Since it has become resistence we have hit it 5 times and went through it a little, but every one of those hits it would brake down with a good sell off. So here we are again breaking it on Fri. Well maybe the second part of this puzzle is we are at a potential double top. One last thing I watching is the MACD which is in divergence as we go higher it is actually moving with lower highs. Monday is such a big day for this stock, do we confirm the break higher or does it come in and break down and sell off like we have the last 5 hits prior to Fri. Again you may think I am a big chicken but I will wait for Monday to tell me which way Oil will be going. With all the up rest in the middle east the best way to play this may be options where you can limit your lost if the trade goes against you. Again I will wait for Monday's close to Give me a better look at this trade.

FDX Missed Opertunity

Well here is one I missed FDX just completed a beautiful Inverse Head and Shoulders. On Mar 24th it broke its neck line (pink dotted line) and confirmed the break the next day. My calculations had a target of 96 which was hit on Fri plus it hit a count system I use too. Now where we go from here. I love Fridays candle beautiful shooting star just as we completed the inverse head and shoulder. I think the next move is down because of this candle appearing after a good rally. Come Monday I will be watching this stock and may buy a May 90 put but will wait to see the price action.

SPY Closed the Week at My 2 Trend Lines

Well it was 0400 in the morning getting ready for work on Fri. I thought I have a quick look at the charts and I noticed that the SPY was coming into 2 trends lines which would be some major resistance. The first is the pink trend line from early Mar that was at that time support and got broke. To repeat myself support become resistance once broke and here we are again. The second resistance line is the Mar 1st high. The 2 trend lines crossed at the 133.16. The start of the day we opened above it and traded most of the day about it then about 0200 the market sold off to close just below the 2 lines. I think we head down the next couple days to test the green trend but I still am nervous with this market with all the Fed manipulation. If we continue with the low vol they may try to push this market to new highs but eventually it will break down and when it does it will break hard.

So where am I with this market as far as a trade. I am neutral until the market lets me know where we are going. Until we break above the Feb high and confirm to the upside or we can break the green trend line on the down side and confirm I will remain neutral and be very selective on my trades and not overloading on shorts or longs.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Caution SPY Hitting 2 resistence lines

Sorry without my charts today but need to let you know premarket today the SPY hit 133 which has come up against 2 trend lines of resistence. If you go to my last SPY chart it is the pink trend line. The second is the Mar. 1st high right at 133. With the jobs report out at 08:30 watch we dont hit this resistence then close lower. Rember stops to protect urself incase the market goes against your trade.

Disclaimer: Please read the disclaimer at the top of the blog

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Spy Big Trend Support Never Broke

Well my last blog I told you to watch the green trend line and how it was major support. the next day we broke through it but! Yes never confirmed the break the very next day closed above and for over a week the market has moved up. I think we are close to a top and a move back down. Why do I think that, is the pink trend line was support early Mar. broke to run to the green trend line. So support now become resistance. Where are we ,back at the pink trend line now resistance.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Spy At A Big Trend Support

With the green ascending Trend line being major support and if we brake it with a second day confirmation then next support is 121.26. With war at hand and the Japan earthquakes still having effects on this market, this will be a very tricky market to maneuver in so use your stop losses and be very cautious.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

FDX Keep a Eye On it Bearish Signal

Keep a eye on FDX it has a bear flag forming with the flag coming into 2 averages that are very close together creating a heavy resistance area. Maybe this is one peace of the puzzle to tell us where the S&P next move is.

The other part of this puzzle is FDX has just pulled back from a double top so maybe this bear flag is telling us its getting ready for the second leg down. FDX is one stock I don't trade but like to watch to give me a idea of what the economy is doing. Because they move many goods for many corporations its a good indicated for the general market.

Please read the disclaimer at the top of the blog.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

NBIX Full of Technical Moves

I have not traded this stock and using it as to show the technicals behind the charts.

Please read the disclaimer at the top of the blog.

Friday, March 11, 2011

SPY 129 Big Support Still in Tack

Well yesterday I posted and said I wouldn't be adding any new short because 129.72 was major support. Well we penetrated it today but closed above so it is still in tack. I think I will stay Neutral on the SPY here because this was the 1st hit of the 50 average in quite awhile. I think I will wait to see if we get a double top 135 area or we get a break through the 129.72 with a second day to confirm it before I make any trade on it.

Please read the disclaimer at the top of the blog.

DRYS Map of a good Call but Not the Trade

Well sold my DRYS Mar puts at a break even trade. Had a great call on the H & S but didn't trade it so well. The problem was I couldn't short the stock so went with options and the time didn't work for me. So here we go on the Road map and follow the blue arrows.

#1 bot my Mar $5 put for 38 cents

#2 the option went to 53 cents and the stock came up to a ascending trend line made the 1st hit of the 200 average and I was gonna sell half but didn't and that was my 1st mistake.

#3 Broke the green trend line, penetrated the 200 average again but closed above. Had opportunity to sell at 45 cents and almost pulled the trigger but didn't.

#4 Well today with options X next week and the stock came into a Gap plus I just ran out of time with my option and sold at .38 cents with a actual commission lost but very minimal

Now if I could of shorted the share out right like I wanted to I still be 40 cents ahead with out time hurting me. So what next with the DRYS, well I move on to my next trade and will watch to see if any new patterns come up but not trading this stock until that occurs.

Please read my disclaimer at the top of the blog.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

USO Never got the confirmation

Here we go again the USO broke to new high but we never got confirmation. Monday close was below the Fridays high then Tues. tried to run above Fri. high again only to close the day below again. I neutral here because oil has come a long way and needs to rest before going higher.

Please read the disclaimer at the top of the blog before making any trades.

SPY 129 Big Support

Tomorrow big day on the SPY 129.72 big support with the 50 average getting a 1st hit in a long time. Be cautious here until we break that support and confirm it, I will not be adding to my shorts here until I get my technical signal.

Please check my disclaimer at the top of the blog

GLD Consolidation or is the Party Over

Well right now it looks like consolidation until the technical tell me different . I said last blog on GLD I thought it would come in and Test the 20 average but that came sooner then later coming about 6 cents from touching it. I am gonna stay neutral with the political tensions see if we break the 20 average before i get bearish on this asset. A hit on the 50 average would still be classified as consolidation. Only a break below the Feb lows would get me bearish.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

GLD H & S Neck line become point of resistence

If you go back to Nov where I called out a head and shoulders top you see the neck line drawn in red dotted line. It now has become a point of resistance as GLD has moved up. We tried to break new highs on the 1st of Mar. Next day needed to confirm touched the neckline and fell back below the new high trend line.Three days later or yesterday tried to break new highs touched the red dotted trend line and again fell back below the 139.67 resistance line. I think maybe we consolidate here to build some strength to break that new high so watch we don't fall back test the 20 average before moving forwards. I do not trade GLD because gold is very high risk do to political happenings around the world.

Please read the disclaimer at the top of the blog page and consult a professional stock consultant before making any trades.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

USO Double Top?

Well here go again number1 rule confirmation and wow it is such a good rule and I wish I can say I invented it but didn't and its one rule I live by trading. My last video on the USO I said I thought it was moving lower and here we go the again my big phrase was IF WE CONFIRM THE BREAK. Well we didn't and if you look at the yellow circle we broke the 2 trend lines and the 200 average on the 15th of Feb. The next day close was above the close of the 15th and closed just above the 200 average not confirming it. Well that became a pivotal area and look where we are today. Possible break 42 which is a major resistance area.

So Fri we broke the 42 now what? Here I go again and preach need confirmation. We have to see what Mon. will bring us. Do we close above the close of Fri. break and confirm the next leg up higher or not confirm and pull back. I am Neutral here and gonna let the market tell me where it wants to go.

Please read the disclaimer at the top of my blog.

GLD Trying to Break to New Highs

Well my last call for the GLD was it had a good chance of going to 139 after the bull flag won out. Well we hit that and tried to break out to new highs. But don't get fooled we never confirm the break out. The top red trend line was the last high, on the 1st of Mar. we broke that line (New High) but next day didn't confirm. Number one rule let it confirm before taking the trade. To confirm you have to close higher then the day that you broke the trend or in this case new high. Fri we tried to break the red trend line a second time but pulled back again by the end of day. So I am neutral until we can get confirmation or get some pattern to see where the GLD is going.

Again please read the disclaimer at the top of my blog.

Spy Defying Gravity the movie

Here is the video version for you people that can access videos

SPY defiys gravity

Well the laws of gravity should bring this market a tumbling but wow is it defying gravity. Well 129.72 is major major support now. If you see the blue arrows on the left you see where twice it bumped it before breaking on the 3 attempt. Now in technicals what was resistance now becomes support once broken and the reverse is true too. So we broke it on the 1st of Feb. ran up then came back to test it on 24th of Feb. then bounced higher. I have 136 as the next major resistance and 129.72 major support. I think until the Fed gives up this propping of the market the 136 is our next target but if we break the 129.72 support and get confirmation I will not load up on too many shorts here.

This chart is to show you where I got the 129.72 (top red trend line )which goes back to Jan of 2008 where there was some consolidation happening before the markets broke down bad. So this is a strong trend line and may take a few attempts at it to break it down to get this market turned down.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

SPY Need Followup Today

Got a nice drop today but again need confirmation that the move is down. We came threw a key support in 132.56 but must stay below that n a closing basis on Wed. there is a 2nd trend line marked in orange I like to see break then I think we can get some downward direction and test the green trend line.

This chart shows you how I get the orange trend line if you go back to Sept lows and draw up to Dec lows and continue on. That gives you the orange trend line.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

GLD Why the Bull Flag Won

OK here is my written part why the Bull flag won. If you look I drew up 2 bear flags in blue and 2 bull flags in green. The 1st bull and bear flags have the flag part of the pattern more horizontal then the 2nd flags with the flag more of a angle. The flatter the flag the high percentage that the flag will win.So here you had two flags with the bull having a flatter flag and ended up winning over the bear flag running to today's close of 136.26. I think we have a very good chance of hitting the 139 mark with all the up rest in the middle east

Now here is my video for those who prefer it then the written

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

GLD looks like the Bull Flag won

Disclaimer: This blog is my own amateur interpetations of technical charts and should not be used as investment idea's or trades. Consult your own investment consultant before making any trades

USO Neutral to Bearish

Disclaimer: This blog is my own amateur interpetations of technical charts and should not be used as investment idea's or trades. Consult your own investment consultant before making any trades.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

USO

Here is my thoughts on the USO on video. Hope it helps give you a better understanding on technical analysis

GLD 2 Pattern Conflict

Here is a interesting dilemma. Two patterns showing in the same time frame conflicting each other. Marked in blue is a in spirit of bear flag and in green is a in spirit bull flag. So what do you do here. Well my feelings is to stay neutral and let the market show us which way it want to go. One peace of the puzzle is we have not played out the head & shoulder pattern and tagged the 127 target yet but then I have had some debate whether it is a true head and shoulders pattern. I think we go tag the 50 average at the 134 area then which is also resistance level marked in black (133.77 to be exact) then continue to tag the 127 target.

This my interpretations of technical charting and if you decide to trade you should contact a professional investment consultant before making any trades.

Broke 2000 High But not Confirmed

We broke the 2000 highs on Friday but I always like another day to confirm the break. Vol is still low the Fed still playing the QE2 game so I am still kinda neutral here to see what Monday brings at a close to see where we go from here.

Base on this longer dated daily chart and Fridays break is confirmed on Monday then the next resistance will be 135.91

Friday, February 4, 2011

Gld Whats Next

Well last week I thought we had a reversal candle and might go and test the 20 average on the daily. Well we hit it yesterday, didn't confirm the break today and the candle looks like a topping candle. I still have that 127 area for a target and if things in Egypt calm down there is a good chance we test that area. Another thing I see is a possible beat flag ( marked in dotted blue lines) which could help us get there. I do not trade this stock but use it as a indicator of market direction.

Again this is my interpretation of technical charting and anyone looking to trade should consult a investment consultant before making any trades.

#2 Miss

Here is another small cap I was waiting to reach the 38.2% retracement but again the strength in the market broke the down channel and popped. I was serious in picking up a position when it broke but again the over all market being at such highs scared me. I think it might get to 4.50 then should be some resistance and then I see where the total market is and maybe it could be a short at a double top. But will wait and see what pattern develops from this.

Again this is my interpretations of technical trading and you should consult an investment consultant before making any trades

Opxt Missed the trade but not chacing

Well short term missed the big move. I was hoping OPXT would have pulled back to the 1.75 area where I was gonna start a position but others thought it was a good bet and moved it up 29% today. The one lessen I have learned is never chase so I will let the short term trade go because I am still worry of the SPY hitting the 132.56 resistance and this market pulling back

But longer term ( the 2nd chart is a 5 year weekly chart) I still like this stock because the longer term pattern is very bullish. I would like to see some consolidation here for a week or two, have the market at a whole pull back the 5 to 10 % that everyone is looking for then I will be all over this stock A pull back to the 2.08 will be were I will look to pick this stock up now.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

No Comfirmation and WOW

Well my last comments yesterday no confirmation on the SPY I wouldn't trade this market. I wish I had listened to my own words. I tried to scalp the SPY on a day trade and lost 10 cents, THANK GOD FOR STOPS. Famous last word, the stop saved me another 20 cent lost but the big thing is I didn't listen to my own word and that the pivot was not confirmed, and the markets rallied to new highs. We broke 130 mark so next support will be even number 131 then my big support is 132.56 the 2000 highs shown on the chart below.Low vol again under the 250 million mark again and the markets go up. Now that we broke 130 it now becomes support. If we break that then next support is that 127.17, But again lets not get to far ahead of our self specially in this market.

This is my interpretations of technical charts and consult a investment specialist before making any trades.

Monday, January 31, 2011

SPY Pivot Still No Confirmation

So no confirmation of a pivot yet on the SPY. My last blog on the SPY I said we had to have a close below 127.13 to confirm a pivot and a good chance of a correction. Didn't happen today and the vol was back down below the 250 million again . Low vol, market up but lets see what tomorrow brings. Today could be just a consolidation or pause day. Maybe we hold here a couple days and form a bear flag. I will not trade this until we have confirmation of a pivot.

Again this is just my interpretations of technical charting and consult a investment consultant before making any trades

Sunday, January 30, 2011

GLD Where now

Here I have a chart of the GLD that goes back to the July 2010 lows. If you have read my earlier post on the GLD I called a head & shoulders top and a target of 127.We were well on our way until Friday where we touched 127.80 and the troubles in Egypt broke out. Fridays candle looks like a short term reversal which could take us back up to test the 20 average. I still like the pattern and still have that 127 support. Also what makes me think we will get there is in blue is Fibbonacci retracements. The 50% retracement is at 126.44 and again the 200 daily average is rising and coming into that same area. I think we will test this area before moving back to breaking the Dec.highs.

Now here is a chart that shows the last 7 days leading to Friday's close. Fridays candle does not classify as a engulfing candle. Thursday open was 130.29 and its close was 127.92. Fridays open was 130.28 so we 127.92 and closed at 130.28. The body of Friday's candle was inside the body of Thursday candle To be a engulfing candle which is very bullish, Friday's open and close should have been outside of Thursday body. I am not saying that Friday is not a reversal but you need to see another candle before I will trade off this pattern.

Again this is my interpretations of technical charts and and you must consult with your investment consultant before doing any trades

Drys Still holding Puts

Still holding my DRYS Mar 5.00 puts. We had some support a couple days at 5.00 then broke through to come into a uptrend line (lime green trend line) along with the 200 day average. My Putts are still in the money but I have a break even stop on this trade so I will not loose. I still like this short and think we will break the green trend line to get the final push down to my target 4.00

Here is a wider time frame that shows where I get the green trend line connecting the 2010 July low to Nov low pivot. There is a gap around the 4.25 area which depending how fast we get there I may take half of my position off and take some profit ,but lets not get ahead of ourselves and get through the green trend lined 1st

Saturday, January 29, 2011

SPY TAGGED 130

Well my last post I told you I didn't think we got the pivot confirmed and that 130 was still my resistance. Well it got pegged on Friday and then someone pulled the rug out from under it. To confirm a pivot we still got to break the 127.13 low back on the 20th but I think we have the catalyst in the Egyptian crisis to get the correction going. There should be a little support on the 50 average but it was tagged once back in Dec since the July lows so there should be some weakness in it, not like a 1st hit. The 1st support will be 122.36 the Nov high (trend line marked in red). But were I see major support is the 119.54 which is a gap window (trend lines marked in blue). This is a area of past congestion where there is gap fill, then Nov lows. (lowest trend line marked in red) You also have the 200 average moving into this area too.

Remember this is my interpretations of technical charting and before you trade consult a professional consultant before acting on any trades.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

OPXT Opnext, Inc

Here is a small cap I will keeping a eye on which I like long and mid term. I love the W pattern ( draw out in blue on the chart 1) that its form and I think we are about to form the V part af the pattern. The market at a whole is over bought so I will be paitent and wait for a pullback and the V part of the pattern to form. I like the 1.70 area because I see some support forming there. The 200 average on the daily chart is around that area and the 50 is working its way up. I love to see the 2 averages intersect around that area with the stock pulling back there. If we get to 1.70 looking at picking up 1/2 a position then wait to see the pattern play out.

Now here is a long term chart (3 year weekly chart) and what pattern do we see starting to form. The answer is W (drawn out in blue). Now it has to keep the trend moving up to 3.28 to form the 1st part of the pattern. But what I like about this stock is 2 different time frames looking bullish.The daily bullish and the weekly bullish. Another part of the puzzle is the MACD. It is showing divergence in the weekly chart and if you look at the daily when the W formed there is divergence on the MACD there too. Again this is my interpretations of technical charts and any trade should be discussed with your professional investor before performing any trades.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

SPY NO PIVOT YET

So Wed nice big down day with a little more vol. Can we called this a pivot day? Technically no. To be a true pivot we have to close below Wednesday tail which is 127.91. The pivot is still possible and in play as long as we don't trade above Wednesday high. If that happens we look for a double top or my next big resistance at 130. The MACD is in slight divergence but nowhere to what I like to see so I am very cautious here with all the fed involvement and stuff it is very hard to load up on shorts. I have one Long and one short via a put option (my trading company would not let me short DRYS so I bought a Put Option instead) I am still roughly 90% cash so you can call me neutral. I will wait and let the market tell me direction before I will commit more money to this market. This again is my interpretations of technical charting and due diligence should be used before any trades are made. Contact a professional stock broke and discuss before any trade are made.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

DRYS

Here is another Head and Shoulders top. Dryships Inc broke the neck line today but still need second day below the neck line to confirm the break. My measurements takes it to 4.00 which is very close to the pivot area back in Nov of 2010 at about 4.05. I like the vol pattern too with the higher vol at the left shoulder and head then there is at the right shoulder. There should be some support at 5.00 and we may have a small bounce back close to the neck line which would be a better time to buy in and have a tighter stop in case the pattern breaks down. Only a close above the neck line would negate the pattern. This is my interpretation of technical charting and anyone should us due diligence and contact a professional stock broker before making any trades.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

LOW VOL MARKET UP

So I been ranting and raving about vol. Well here is a chart of the SPY where I have circled the high vol days. There are 3 periods where the vol was high and the market moved down but once the vol dropped off the market drifted up. It looks like the SPY needs over 200 million to 300 million shares on a daily base trade to get the market to drop. Again this is just my interpetation of charts and due diligence should be practiced and discuss any trades with a professional before going ahead with a trade.

SPY intraday 11/01/18 to close

The 1st chart is my post around 1100 am called SPY intraday to show a trend line I was watching. We didn't get the break until late in the day then only got a small pullback. Light vol is killing this market and the promo working hard floating this market up. The problem is it is so hard to short until some vol come back to the market. I had a day trade short going but took a small lost thanks to my stop as shown in the 2nd chart once the trend line got breached and the trend was no longer in play.

SPY intraday 11/01/18

watch the red trend line intraday we break thru it this market should move down to 1290 then 1288

Saturday, January 15, 2011

KOPN

Here a stock that broke a inverse Head and shoulder and now forming a bull flag. So if your a believer of Fibonacci numbers a pull back to 3.83 ( which is the blue lines and is the 38.2% retracementt) would be a good time to maybe start a position on this stock. If we should break the 38.2 retracement the would breach the neck line and void the head and shoulders pattern. My measurement for the head and shoulder is 5.00 which is the top red line and a double top. Again this is my interpetations of technical charting and consult ur investment consultant before making any trades

Thursday, January 13, 2011

H&S 1 lives 1 dies

Well yesterday both charts were about to break down and I warned how caution should be taken because when they break they can break hard . The FXE is a prime example on how they will run hard once the patterns break down. The GLD was saved but with such low vol I have a hard time committing to this market . I don't think Europe is out of trouble yet and to think they are saved by a bigger debtor country like Japan buying their debt is gonna save the world. It be like me getting a second credit card to pay off my 1st but I cant do that and survive which I feel is the same for these countries. As for The GLD there is some support at 133.70 then 133. The FXE went and hit the 50 average 1st time since it broke threw in Nov so there should be some selling for a day or so but again light vol I just don't trust it.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Head & Shoulders still Alive but Just Barley

Well both Head and shoulders are still alive but just barley. Both closed on or very close to their neck lines but as long as we don,t cross over and close with a breach of the neck line they are still in play on this pattern. I am afraid the powers to be do not want to let this market flow naturally and are doing everything in their powers to prop this market up.That is one big reason I have not traded these patterns. We will have to see what the close brings us tomorrow. Just one thing is when patterns break down they will usually run hard the opposite way so be very careful and always use your stops. The big thing in markets like this is protect your capital. I am sitting on 90% cash because I just don't trust the manipulation in this market so again due diligence and talk over any trade with your stock consultant or broker before making any trades.